The Cinderella / Sleeper Tracker
The leaderboard rewards having good teams. The Sleeper Tracker rewards having surprising teams โ specifically, lower-tier teams that outperform what their FIFA ranking would predict.
The formula:
Cinderella Score = (Overperformance ร Tier Bonus) + (Goals Scored ร 0.2) โ (Goals Conceded ร 0.1)
Overperformance = Actual Points โ Expected Points
Expected Points โ 1.8 pts/game at top of Tier B, sliding to 0.5 pts/game at bottom of Tier C
Tier Bonus: Tier B = ร1.15 ยท Tier C = ร1.30 ยท lower tiers more
A Tier C team winning two group games when they were expected to lose all three scores massively. A Tier B team doing exactly what their ranking predicts scores near zero. Negative scores mean underperforming.
This is purely based on FIFA rankings, not betting odds. If a team ranked 60th beats a team ranked 8th, the Cinderella tracker treats it as the upset it is โ regardless of what the bookmakers said.
Only Tier B and below are tracked. Tier A teams are the favourites โ outperforming expectations isn't a Cinderella story, it's just Tuesday.