The Cinderella / Sleeper Tracker
The leaderboard rewards having good teams. The Sleeper Tracker rewards having surprising teams — specifically, lower-tier teams that outperform what their FIFA ranking would predict.
The formula:
Cinderella Score = (Overperformance × Tier Bonus) + (Goals Scored × 0.2) − (Goals Conceded × 0.1)
Overperformance = Actual Points − Expected Points
Expected Points ≈ 1.8 pts/game at top of Tier B, sliding to 0.5 pts/game at bottom of Tier C
Tier Bonus: Tier B = ×1.15 · Tier C = ×1.30 · lower tiers more
A Tier C team winning two group games when they were expected to lose all three scores massively. A Tier B team doing exactly what their ranking predicts scores near zero. Negative scores mean underperforming.
This is purely based on FIFA rankings, not betting odds. If a team ranked 60th beats a team ranked 8th, the Cinderella tracker treats it as the upset it is — regardless of what the bookmakers said.
Only Tier B and below are tracked. Tier A teams are the favourites — outperforming expectations isn't a Cinderella story, it's just Tuesday.